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How Agents & The Media Spin The Median Price Stats
I had it come up recently on my facebook feed in a sponsored ad spruiking that now was a good time to sell in Nunawading as the median price had increased from $860k to $1.13m (a massive 33.2% change). The ad is designed to encourage owners in the area to consider selling as the market is hot. So I dug a bit deeper to look at longer term stats to see if the market was really that hot or the ad was all hype.

The median price in June 2017 was $1.198m, so if that is the case I could also argue that there has been a decline in the Nunawading market over the past 3.5 years of 5.7%. But like the Agent, I have manipulated the numbers to suit my narrative.

When it comes to median prices I only ever use it as a tool for trends. Looking at 1-5 years of data gives a much higher sample size and allows you to smooth the graph to eliminate the outliers. In this case 12 months ago the median price was $1.085m just before Covid hit and the market took a big pause to see what would happen next. It dipped down to that low figure not necessarily because of a market crash but because of low stock and home owners with more expensive properties holding on whilst first home buyers and downsizes continued to buy into the lower (less risky) part of the market.

Using my wholistic approach to property I always take the home owners overall situation into account rarely is there a rush to sell. Don’t get me wrong, if you are considering selling then ‘now’ (whenever that is) can be a great time. Until my crystal ball starts working and I can be certain of prices in the future that is all I can do!
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