I don’t have a crystal ball, but what I do know is that property market is all about supply and demand.
Never has an event like the shutdowns to the economy in 2020 caused so much uncertainty. Statistics show we are in more debt than ever and if home owners in mass are forced to sell there will be a lot of pain. The end of Jobkeeper and Loan holidays will be key moments, so how will things play out?
Things we know…
Things didn’t ‘crash’ in 2020 when they quite easily could have. Decisions by the RBA with two interest rate reductions, the banks providing loan holidays and the governments Jobkeeper where controlled factors that kept the market steady. External factors were that stock was down meaning the supply and demand created competition and prices stayed fairly steady in most markets.
So what next?
Jobkeeper and loan holidays will end. Jobkeeper has been scaling back for a while now and the ones in danger are not so much the workers, but the employers that could suddenly be in a position where they have to sell their homes. Let me explain. Currently Jobkeeper is $600 a week which is paid through the employer by the government. If a staff member loses their job there are a lot of jobs they can find that will replace this income. However, an employer with 10 staff who has been subsidised $6,000 a week to pay Jobkeeper is suddenly having to make up this shortfall. Many might be hanging on in hope things get better but if they don’t it is the hard working small business owner at most risk. As more people are out of work they are less likley to spend.
Will home owners put their homes on the market in uncertain times?
If properties for sale were down 30% in a lot of markets does that mean in 2021 that we will see higher volumes for sale? In theory yes as people upsize, downsize, move location and family circumstances change all the time by necessity. But human nature is a funny thing and if prices have dropped a portion of the market will simply hold back until the market recovers again (no matter how long that is).
Never has an event like the shutdowns to the economy in 2020 caused so much uncertainty. Statistics show we are in more debt than ever and if home owners in mass are forced to sell there will be a lot of pain. The end of Jobkeeper and Loan holidays will be key moments, so how will things play out?
Things we know…
Things didn’t ‘crash’ in 2020 when they quite easily could have. Decisions by the RBA with two interest rate reductions, the banks providing loan holidays and the governments Jobkeeper where controlled factors that kept the market steady. External factors were that stock was down meaning the supply and demand created competition and prices stayed fairly steady in most markets.
So what next?
Jobkeeper and loan holidays will end. Jobkeeper has been scaling back for a while now and the ones in danger are not so much the workers, but the employers that could suddenly be in a position where they have to sell their homes. Let me explain. Currently Jobkeeper is $600 a week which is paid through the employer by the government. If a staff member loses their job there are a lot of jobs they can find that will replace this income. However, an employer with 10 staff who has been subsidised $6,000 a week to pay Jobkeeper is suddenly having to make up this shortfall. Many might be hanging on in hope things get better but if they don’t it is the hard working small business owner at most risk. As more people are out of work they are less likley to spend.
Will home owners put their homes on the market in uncertain times?
If properties for sale were down 30% in a lot of markets does that mean in 2021 that we will see higher volumes for sale? In theory yes as people upsize, downsize, move location and family circumstances change all the time by necessity. But human nature is a funny thing and if prices have dropped a portion of the market will simply hold back until the market recovers again (no matter how long that is).